JERUSALEM –
Israel launched a new wave of strikes across Iran on Sunday, intensifying a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign aimed at decapitating the Islamic Republic’s command structure and dismantling its air defenses and ballistic missile forces, a day after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening salvo. Iranian state outlets reported hundreds dead, and Tehran answered with barrages of missiles and drones against U.S. bases across the Gulf and targets in Israel. Regional airspace closures cascaded from Dubai to Doha, stranding travelers and halting hub operations. (rnz.co.nz)
The cross-border exchange has jolted the Middle East into its most dangerous confrontation in decades. Khamenei’s death after nearly 37 years at the pinnacle of Iran’s system removes the linchpin of a theocracy that has shaped regional geopolitics since 1989, while opening succession mechanics that could determine whether Iran doubles down on confrontation or seeks a negotiated off‑ramp. Simultaneously, aviation and energy shocks are rippling through global markets as governments scramble to contain escalation. (washingtonpost.com)
What we know now
- Saturday, February 28: U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes across Iran, hitting command nodes, air-defense sites, and missile infrastructure. Iranian and international media reported Khamenei killed in Tehran; Washington and Jerusalem said the campaign would continue and framed the operation as a response to prior Iranian actions rather than a one‑off reprisal. (washingtonpost.com)
- Sunday, March 1: Israel executed additional strikes around the capital and major bases; Iran retaliated with missiles and drones at U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, and at Israeli cities. Sirens sounded across Israel; the U.S. reported minimal damage and no confirmed U.S. fatalities, even as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed further action. (theguardian.com)
- Air travel: Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha suspended operations amid damage reports and overflight bans, triggering mass cancellations and diversions worldwide and forcing some carriers to route long‑haul traffic via Europe or Central Asia. (ft.com)
“Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead.”
U.S. President Donald Trump posted the statement on his platform as the strikes unfolded, later framing the operation as an opportunity for Iranians to seize their future-language Tehran condemned as unlawful regime change and as proof that Washington was targeting the Islamic Republic’s constitutional order, not just its military capabilities. (washingtonpost.com)
Leadership vacuum and the constitutional playbook
Iran’s authorities said a three‑member interim leadership council is now exercising the Supreme Leader’s powers, as prescribed by Article 111 of the country’s constitution, which sets out the procedure when the office of the Leader becomes vacant, including the role of a temporary council until a new Leader is chosen via the clerical Assembly of Experts. The body includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam‑Hossein Mohseni‑Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council. The Assembly of Experts-an 88‑member clerical chamber elected in tightly controlled polls-must move “as soon as possible” to choose a successor. (aljazeera.com)
That process is opaque, filtered by institutions long shaped by Khamenei, and comes in the wake of successive shocks to Iran’s elite, including the May 2024 death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The succession will unfold under the shadow of a sprawling security apparatus, an economy under heavy sanctions, and a constitutional system that invests the Supreme Leader with ultimate authority over the armed forces, the judiciary and state media.
A campaign to break Iran’s deterrent
Israeli statements and battlefield effects point to a target set designed to degrade Iran’s layered air defenses-S‑300PMU‑2 batteries and indigenous systems such as Bavar‑373 and Khordad‑15-alongside fixed missile infrastructure and aircraft on alert. Iran possesses the region’s largest ballistic missile arsenal, including solid‑fuel families like Fateh and Sejjil and longer‑range Khorramshahr variants, giving it the ability to saturate defenses across the Gulf and Levant and to threaten U.S. forces and partners across a wide radius. (en.wikipedia.org)
U.S. forces contributed long‑range fires and enabling assets in the initial waves. Analysts noted the heavy employment of Tomahawk cruise missiles, underscoring both the intensity of the opening strikes and longer‑term questions about Western magazine depth should operations persist or widen. The Pentagon has not disclosed exact munitions expenditure, but officials say stockpiles remain sufficient for current operational plans. (businessinsider.com)
Airspace closures and a region on edge
The conflict prompted at least partial closures of airspace across Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, with Dubai-normally the world’s busiest international hub-brought to a standstill. Airlines from Emirates and Qatar Airways to European and Asian carriers scrubbed or rerouted services; airports in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait reported damage. New Zealanders transiting Dubai told RNZ they were effectively trapped as the airport shut, echoing scenes of stranded travelers region‑wide. (theguardian.com)
The shock to civil aviation is among the largest since the pandemic. On Saturday alone, nearly a quarter of arrivals into Middle Eastern countries were canceled, with thousands of global delays. Knock‑on effects will continue as carriers reposition aircraft and crews, regulators reassess overflight permissions, and insurers price in elevated risk. (euronews.com)
Energy routes in the crosshairs
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has signaled risk to shipping at the Strait of Hormuz, the 21‑mile‑wide chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and about one‑fifth of LNG trade move. Even without a formal closure, insurer pullbacks and naval activity can throttle flows and spike prices; market watchers warned Brent could breach $100 if disruptions persist and if any attack on tankers forces a sustained rerouting of energy supplies. (aljazeera.com)
A jolt to diplomacy and law
The U.N. Security Council met in emergency session as Secretary‑General António Guterres urged de‑escalation, warning of “a chain of events that no one can control.” Russia condemned the killing as a violation of international law; European leaders pressed both sides to avoid a wider war and to restore nuclear diplomacy under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The legality of a decapitation strike on a sitting head of state-and rhetoric implying regime change-will now be tested in world bodies and capitals alike, against standards set by the U.N. Charter and customary rules on the use of force. (washingtonpost.com)
Inside Iran: grief, fury-and uncertainty
Images from Tehran and other cities showed black‑clad mourners and pro‑government rallies alongside scattered scenes of celebration among citizens embittered by years of repression, including the crackdowns of 2019-2023 and renewed protests this winter. Authorities have warned against “exploiting” the moment, while security forces maintain a heavy presence in major urban centers. Whatever leadership emerges will inherit domestic polarization, sanctions‑strangled finances, and the Revolutionary Guard’s vast political‑economic footprint, limiting room for rapid policy shifts even if new figures seek to recalibrate.
As of late Sunday, March 1, fresh Israeli strikes were reported in the Tehran area; Iran maintained high alert and signaled continued missile responses; major Gulf hubs, including Dubai International Airport, remained closed or severely curtailed; and the U.N. Security Council remained seized of the crisis. Casualty tallies on all sides were preliminary and subject to revision as rescue operations and damage assessments continued. (theguardian.com)
