BRUSSELS – Home prices across 19 of the largest housing markets in the European Union (EU) and the European Economic Area (EEA) have diverged sharply, with several nations seeing rapid double-digit growth while the region’s largest economies remain below previous price peaks.
New transaction-based data from Eurostat through the first quarter of 2026 reveals a fragmented real estate environment. While Southern and Eastern European markets are experiencing aggressive surges in value, major markets including Germany and France have seen prices drop from highs reached several years ago. The figures form part of the official house price index system overseen by the European Commission’s statistical office, which supports the monitoring of financial stability and compliance with EU fiscal and macro‑prudential rules under the [European System of Accounts](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32013R0549).
### Rapid Value Gains in Southern and Eastern Europe
Several markets recorded double-digit year-over-year gains in the first quarter of 2026, amplifying concerns among policymakers about affordability and potential overheating in parts of the bloc. Portugal led the group with a 19.7% increase, followed by Bulgaria and Slovakia.
The most significant year-over-year gains for Q1 2026 include:
- Portugal: +19.7%
- Bulgaria: +16.3%
- Slovakia: +15.2%
- Hungary: +13.5%
- Spain: +13.5%
- Czechia: +10.1%
Short-term momentum remained strong in the first quarter, with Bulgaria recording the highest quarter-over-quarter gain at 7.3%. Other notable quarterly increases were seen in Portugal (+4.2%), Slovakia (+3.6%), and Spain (+3.5%), underscoring how rapidly conditions can shift for borrowers, regulators and local governments dependent on property-related tax revenue.
### Price Retractions in Core European Markets
In contrast to the growth in the east and south, several major economies are seeing existing home prices settle below previous peaks. Germany and France, the two largest markets in the data set, both remain in a corrective phase, easing pressure on central banks and macro‑prudential authorities but raising questions about construction activity and household balance sheets.
Current price declines from previous peaks include:
- Finland: -16.8% (Peak: Q2 2022)
- Italy: -10.2% (Peak: Q2 2011)
- Germany: -10.2% (Peak: Q2 2022)
- France: -6.5% (Peak: Q3 2022)
- Sweden: -5.5% (Peak: Q2 2022)
- Austria: -3.2% (Peak: Q3 2022)
In Finland, prices have fallen by 16.8% from the peak reached in the second quarter of 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, returning values to 2010 levels and shifting the debate toward household debt resilience and bank exposure. Italy’s market has seen recent surges but remains 10.2% below the peak of the housing bubble that imploded 15 years ago, a reminder that some euro-area markets are still digesting legacy imbalances from the global financial crisis.
### Long-Term Growth Trajectories Since 2010
When viewed over a longer horizon, the disparity in growth is more pronounced and carries direct implications for housing policy, social spending and financial-sector supervision. Hungary has seen the most extreme increase in home prices since 2010, with a total gain of 308%, reshaping ownership patterns and affordability for younger households.
The largest price increases since 2010 are:
| Country | % Increase Since 2010 |
|---|---|
| Hungary | +308% |
| Portugal | +186% |
| Czechia | +171% |
| Bulgaria | +165% |
| Slovakia | +146% |
| Austria | +129% |
| Poland | +119% |
| Norway | +118% |
| Netherlands | +96% |
| Sweden | +92% |
Such long-term gains, concentrated in a subset of countries, are closely watched by national finance ministries and central banks as they calibrate mortgage-market rules, rental regulation and support for lower-income buyers.
### Market Specifics, Governance Context and Data Limitations
Eurostat’s tracking of these 19 markets utilizes transaction-based data, which varies in availability by country. Some records extend back to 2005, while others are more limited. The harmonised methodology is designed to make cross-country comparisons viable for EU institutions and national authorities, who rely on the data when assessing macroeconomic imbalances and designing housing-related interventions.
Greece is excluded from this dataset as Eurostat does not provide transaction-based home price data for the country, a gap that complicates full regional analysis and forces policymakers to lean more heavily on national statistics.
Current quarterly performance shows varying degrees of stability. France reported a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 0.7% and a year-over-year gain of only 0.1%, while Germany saw a marginal quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year rise of 1.3%. For fiscal planners and regulators, these small moves in the largest economies contrast sharply with the double-digit surges elsewhere, underscoring how unevenly tighter monetary policy and national housing measures are feeding through the bloc.
Eurostat, as the statistical office of the European Union, continues to collect and update transaction-based housing indices on a quarterly basis, providing a shared evidence base for the European Commission, the European Central Bank and national governments as they weigh next steps on housing, credit standards and broader economic policy.
