Matthew Lloyd believes North Melbourne would be “shattered” to lose Zane Duursma in this trade period, after the former top-five draft pick requested a move to Melbourne.

The former Essendon great argues the Kangaroos have failed to fully capitalise on a rare run of elite draft access during their rebuild, and says Duursma’s potential exit would underline how costly those missteps have become.

“They would be shattered. You just don’t want to lose these top picks without gaining much,” Lloyd told 3AW.

“You don’t want to miss too many top picks, because it can really set you back.”

North Melbourne’s recent list build has been heavily reliant on early selections in the AFL national draft, reflecting their position near the bottom of the ladder and the league’s equalisation framework.

The club used pick three in the 2020 draft on midfielder Will Phillips, who has already been delisted. That decision meant passing on key forward Logan McDonald, taken by Sydney with the very next selection.

In 2021, North opted for Jason Horne-Francis with the No.1 pick. Twelve months later he requested a trade to Port Adelaide, leaving the Kangaroos to reconstruct value on the trade table rather than on the field.

The 2022 draft appeared to steady the strategy. Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw, selected with picks three and four, have both been clear positives for the list and are viewed within the club as cornerstone pieces of the rebuild.

The pressure around Duursma’s situation is magnified by how closely it tracks with other fine-margin calls.

In 2024, North selected Colby McKercher with pick two and Duursma at pick four, bypassing Nick Watson, who went at pick five to Hawthorn. The club also surrendered the opportunity to draft pick one, highly rated prospect Harley Reid, after winning what was widely viewed as a dead-rubber match in the final week of the season.

Those decisions, viewed individually, can all be defended as legitimate list management calls. Taken together, and placed alongside another early departure request from a top draft selection, they form a pattern that fuels Lloyd’s concern that North has not maximised its rebuild window.

The 2025 draft offered a partial reset. Finn O’Sullivan, taken with pick two, is already being spoken about as an important long-term piece for North Melbourne. The club will hope he develops into a genuine A-grade midfielder, particularly with Jagga Smith, drafted immediately after him, already shaping as a future captain of Carlton and a potential All-Australian-level on-baller.

That comparison underlines the razor-thin margins at the top of the draft. When a club in North’s position spends consecutive years near the foot of the ladder, each early selection becomes not only a talent acquisition play but a test of its ability to evaluate character, durability and system fit across a multi-year cycle.

Further scrutiny has fallen on the club’s willingness to part with future premium assets. North traded a future first-round pick that ultimately became a top-five selection for draftee Matt Whitlock, whom they used pick 27 on.

Whitlock is regarded as a longer-term project who will need time to develop. That is a legitimate list-building approach, but pairing a high-cost future selection with a player taken late in the first round only increases the pressure for him to mature into a key contributor.

Placed alongside the Phillips miss, the short-lived Horne-Francis tenure and the emerging Duursma trade request, the Whitlock deal sharpens the conversation about how effectively North have converted draft capital into stable core talent.

It is fair to say North’s list management team, now working under new head coach Jaymie Graham, enters this next phase under significant pressure.

The Kangaroos remain in the early stages of a rebuild within one of the most tightly regulated talent systems in world sport, with salary caps, drafts and equalisation measures designed to give struggling clubs a path back to contention. Losing a recent top-five pick who has shown strong upside would not only dent their medium-term on-field prospects, it would also raise broader questions about player retention, cultural stability and alignment between coaching staff and recruitment.

For international readers, AFL list management is structurally closer to North American franchise models than to European football’s open transfer market. Draft capital is finite, and early selections carry disproportionate weight. When multiple top picks either fail to establish themselves, are traded out quickly or potentially depart before their prime, it can extend a club’s time near the bottom of the standings and complicate any push towards finals contention.

In that context, Lloyd’s warning is less about a single player and more about the cumulative effect. Duursma, as a recent top-four draft pick with upside, represents precisely the type of asset clubs rebuilding through the draft are expected to lock in and build around.

If North and Melbourne complete a deal, the Kangaroos will be judged on the tangible return they secure. Any package would need not only to reflect Duursma’s draft pedigree and potential, but also help correct the imbalance created by past exits and misfires at the top of the draft.

For Graham and his football department, stabilising that pipeline – from selection to development to retention – will be central to whether North Melbourne can transition from a long-term project to a genuine challenger in the AFL’s competitive cycle.