Hawks’ Race for Third Tightens as Lions Hammer Collingwood and Saints Fall to Suns

The battle for third place in the 2026 Australian Football League (AFL) home-and-away season has narrowed to a finely balanced equation, with Hawthorn’s prospects reshaped by Brisbane’s heavy win over Collingwood and the opening fixture of Round 24 between St Kilda and Gold Coast.

As the final round unfolds, the Hawks’ path to a coveted top-four berth – and specifically third place – now depends not only on their own performance but also on how the Lions and Magpies finish the regular season under the AFL’s percentage-based ladder system.

How the AFL Ladder Makes Third Place So Valuable

The AFL’s regular season, governed and scheduled by the Australian Football League, is decided on premiership points and percentage. Teams receive four points for a win and two for a draw, with percentage – points scored for, divided by points conceded – serving as the primary tiebreaker for clubs on equal points.

Finishing in the top four is critical because those clubs earn a “double chance” in the opening week of finals: third plays second in a qualifying final, and even a loss does not end their season. Third place in particular often shapes the finals draw, influencing who travels interstate and who remains at home, with clear competitive and commercial implications for clubs, stadiums and broadcasters.

Brisbane’s Decisive Win Over Collingwood Changes the Equation

Brisbane’s comprehensive victory over Collingwood has significantly altered the race around third. The margin of that result delivered a substantial percentage boost to the Lions while dealing a blow to the Magpies’ own standing.

Before Brisbane’s win, Hawthorn’s scenario carried a degree of control: strong performances could have allowed the Hawks to apply pressure on the Lions and potentially leapfrog them on percentage if both clubs finished on the same number of wins. Brisbane’s rout of Collingwood has now given the Lions a firmer grip on third by improving their scoring differential at a crucial moment in the season.

For Hawthorn, that means the mission is not just to win, but to do so by a margin that meaningfully shifts percentage – a more complex and less forgiving task, particularly in the final week when opponents are either fighting to keep their seasons alive or playing with the freedom of having nothing to lose.

What Hawthorn Must Do to Stay in the Top-Four Fight

Within that framework, Hawthorn’s requirements can be reduced to a set of interlocking outcomes rather than a single result. While the precise numbers on wins, losses and percentage remain confined to the AFL’s live ladder and club analytics, the strategic themes are clear:

• Win their Round 24 match: Without four points, any aspiration of finishing third – or even securing a double chance – is effectively over.
• Accumulate a meaningful percentage gain: Given Brisbane’s uplift from their demolition of Collingwood, a narrow Hawthorn win is unlikely to be enough if the two clubs are level on premiership points.
• Monitor Brisbane’s percentage buffer: The larger the gap the Lions have created with their big victory, the more aggressive Hawthorn needs to be in their approach – pressing for scores rather than simply protecting a lead.
• Rely on Collingwood’s remaining impact: Collingwood’s heavy defeat dents its own ladder prospects but the Magpies can still influence the shape of the top four with their final-round performance.

This is where the Hawks’ assignment edges toward “mission impossible”. They require both a strong performance of their own and favourable outcomes elsewhere, all in a context where opponents have their own ladder incentives.

Brisbane, Collingwood and the Knock-On Effects

Brisbane’s mauling of Collingwood has ripple effects across the competition. For the Lions, the result places one hand firmly on third place and reinforces their claim to a preferred finals route, potentially through a qualifying final that minimises travel and maximises their home-state advantage.

For Collingwood, the heavy defeat undermines both percentage and momentum. While the Magpies remain in the finals conversation, a loss of that magnitude in the penultimate week of the season narrows their margin for error and increases the likelihood that they will miss out on the double chance, or in some scenarios, be drawn into the wildcard or elimination positions rather than the top four.

The AFL’s use of wildcard and extended finals formats in recent years has heightened the stakes across positions three to ten, turning matches like Brisbane-Collingwood into fixtures with outsized consequences for multiple clubs – Hawthorn prominent among them.

Saints v Suns Opens Round 24 and Shapes the Lower Half

Round 24 began on Thursday night at Marvel Stadium with St Kilda hosting the Gold Coast Suns, a match that carried different, but still tangible, ladder implications. The fixture was part of the final round confirmed by the league as the 2026 Toyota Premiership season entered its closing stretch, with St Kilda given a short turnaround into the last week of home-and-away football.

That scheduling placed the Saints and Suns at the front of the queue, with their result locking in baseline positions in the lower half of the ladder and removing some volatility from the mid-table picture. While neither club was in the thick of the race for third, their contest influenced the distribution of wins and percentage in the pack chasing wildcard berths and mid-table stability.

From a broader competition standpoint, this opening game of Round 24 also marked the final outing of the season for both clubs. For players on the fringe of selection, it was a last chance to put forward evidence for contracts, list decisions and future roles; for both coaching groups, it provided a final data point before off-season planning begins in earnest.

Why Third Place Matters So Much for Hawthorn and Brisbane

Third place is not merely a number; it represents a structural advantage built into the AFL finals system. The club that finishes third:

• earns a qualifying final against second, with the loser receiving a second chance the following week
• is more likely to secure favourable travel schedules and recovery windows
• can negotiate commercial and stakeholder benefits tied to prime-time finals exposure

For Hawthorn, a club rebuilding its status after previous premiership eras, returning to the double-chance bracket would signal that its list profile and coaching settings are tracking at a level that justifies medium-term optimism. For Brisbane, consolidating a top-four place after dismantling Collingwood would reinforce their positioning as a sustained contender rather than a one-season spike.

Institutionally, the tussle between these clubs underscores the AFL’s competitive balance settings: the draft, salary cap and fixture are designed to avoid entrenched dynasties, yet a strong off-field and football department structure can still keep clubs in regular contention. The race for third in 2026 is, in part, a test of which model is currently best adapted to that environment.

Global Relevance of a Local Ladder Race

For international audiences, the volatility around third place offers a useful entry point into how the AFL’s domestic rules shape its championship narrative. Unlike many global football leagues that award the title to the club with the most points over the season, the AFL uses the ladder as a qualifier for a separate finals series in which the premiership is decided.

That structure explains why Hawthorn’s attempt to leapfrog into third, Brisbane’s percentage-boosting rout of Collingwood, and the Round 24 opener between St Kilda and Gold Coast all matter beyond the immediate win-loss ledger. Each contest helps fix the terms on which the finals will be played: who benefits from a double chance, who faces sudden-death football from week one, and which clubs enter September with form lines that suggest they are ready to challenge for the premiership.

As Round 24 continues, Hawthorn’s task remains demanding but clearly defined by the AFL’s ladder mechanics. The Hawks must win, and win well, while hoping Brisbane’s grip on third can still be loosened despite the Lions’ emphatic statement against Collingwood. Whatever the final ordering, the 2026 race for third has already reinforced how tightly calibrated the competition has become at the top end of the AFL table.