NRL run home: Roosters seize control as Broncos and Dragons face wooden spoon squeeze

The NRL regular season is entering its decisive phase, with three clubs jostling for the minor premiership, a tightly contested race for the lower top-eight spots and an unusually congested battle to avoid the wooden spoon.

For international readers, the minor premiership is awarded to the team that finishes first on the ladder after the regular season, while the wooden spoon goes to the side that finishes last. Both outcomes carry significant consequences for club governance, coaching stability and recruitment planning under the National Rugby League’s competition framework, which sets the structure for the 27‑round season and finals series.

This season’s run-in is shaped not only by form but by for-and-against, scheduling quirks and the tactical use of home advantage. A data-driven model simulating the remaining matches 100,000 times has produced updated probabilities for every team from first to 17th, giving clubs and fans a clear view of what is at stake in the final weeks.

The title race: Roosters, Panthers and Warriors separate from the pack

1. Sydney Roosters (38 points, +163)

Predicted finish: 1st
Top eight chance: 100%
Top four chance: 99.5%
Minor premiership chance: 53.9%
Remaining games: Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)

The Roosters have taken command of the minor premiership race after defeating Penrith, and now control their own destiny. Win their remaining matches and they stay top; slip, and they risk dropping as low as third and potentially travelling to New Zealand in week one of the finals, where the Warriors currently boast superior for-and-against.

Two home fixtures against the Tigers and Dolphins give the Roosters a structurally favourable run, but the final-round trip to arch-rivals South Sydney could still shape both the top-four seedings and the bottom of the eight. With their minor premiership probability sitting at 53.9 per cent, they are the only side rated more likely than not to finish first.

2. Penrith Panthers (36 points, +286)

Predicted finish: 2nd
Top eight chance: 100%
Top four chance: 99.4%
Minor premiership chance: 24.1%
Remaining games: Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)

Consecutive defeats to the Warriors and Roosters have checked Penrith’s momentum and slashed their minor premiership probability from 63.2 per cent to 24.1 per cent. Structurally, though, their position remains strong: they are heavily favoured to finish in the top two, which would secure a home qualifying final under the NRL’s finals format.

The Panthers are expected to be competitive in all three remaining matches, but trips to Melbourne and a Bulldogs side still fighting for the eight add a degree of risk. Injuries at this stage of the campaign complicate squad rotation and load management, key issues for a club with deep finals ambitions.

3. New Zealand Warriors (36 points, +276)

Predicted finish: 3rd
Top eight chance: 100%
Top four chance: 99.3%
Minor premiership chance: 21.7%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)

The Warriors have emerged as a genuine challenger for the minor premiership, with their title probability climbing from 10.3 per cent to 21.7 per cent. A favourable for-and-against total means that if they win out and the Roosters or Panthers stumble, they can still finish first.

Beyond the numbers, the Warriors’ run home has strategic implications: if they secure a top-two finish, they can base themselves in New Zealand for every match until the grand final, maximising home-ground advantage and reducing travel fatigue, both critical factors in a trans-Tasman competition.

Shaping the top four: Dolphins and Sharks in a two‑way squeeze

4. Dolphins (34 points, +120)

Predicted finish: 4th
Top eight chance: 100%
Top four chance: 57.5%
Minor premiership chance: 0.3%
Remaining games: Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)

The Dolphins have capitalised on Cronulla’s slide and, crucially, appear healthy at the right time of the season. Their top-four probability has more than doubled from 25.7 per cent to 57.5 per cent, reflecting a model that rates them strongly in two of their final three fixtures.

The away clash with the Roosters looms as their defining test. A win there would not only consolidate a top-four berth but also demonstrate that the Dolphins can challenge established contenders in finals-like conditions. They have already beaten the Warriors and pushed Penrith close, underlining their capacity to disrupt the traditional hierarchy.

5. Cronulla Sharks (32 points, +165)

Predicted finish: 5th
Top eight chance: 100%
Top four chance: 42.7%
Remaining games: Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)

Cronulla have moved from a near lock for the four to vulnerable after back-to-back defeats to lower-ranked opponents, with their top-four probability falling from 81.5 per cent to 42.7 per cent. The loss of Braydon Trindall increases the strain on their playmaking depth at precisely the wrong time.

On paper, the Sharks’ schedule remains manageable, and their strong for-and-against offers a buffer. But recent results against the Dragons and Raiders underline how quickly momentum and ladder position can shift when a contender fails to put away teams below them.

Securing a home final: Knights and Rabbitohs hold the inside lane

6. Newcastle Knights (32 points, +76)

Predicted finish: 6th
Top eight chance: 100%
Top four chance: 0.8%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE

Newcastle’s top-four prospects are slim at 0.8 per cent, but they are well placed to host a week-one elimination final. An 8-3 home record underlines how important that would be competitively and commercially for a club that has invested heavily in rebuilding its roster.

The Knights’ schedule – including a home match against a struggling Manly side and a late-season bye – gives them a platform to manage player workload ahead of September, a luxury not enjoyed by teams still scrambling just to make the eight.

7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (30 points, +82)

Predicted finish: 7th
Top eight chance: 98.9%
Top four chance: 0.8%
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)

South Sydney’s win over the Bulldogs has given them significant breathing room in the battle for eighth. With a markedly superior for-and-against, the Bulldogs now effectively need the Rabbitohs to go winless from here while winning all their own remaining games.

The Rabbitohs’ closing stretch is demanding, with home fixtures against the Warriors and Roosters either side of a trip to the Gold Coast. Their priority now shifts from simply qualifying to managing fitness and reintegrating key players, with a view to maximising their threat as a lower-seeded finals side.

The eighth spot: Cowboys in front, Bulldogs chasing

8. North Queensland Cowboys (28 points, -78)

Predicted finish: 8th
Top eight chance: 61.5%
Remaining games: BYE, Tigers (H), Raiders (H)

The Cowboys’ defeat to the Eels, combined with an earlier heavy loss to the Roosters, has left them with a negative for-and-against and a more precarious grip on eighth than their ladder position suggests. The bye still gives them a four-point buffer over Canterbury, but they cannot afford to drop both remaining home matches.

From a governance perspective, missing the finals from this position would raise sharp questions about list balance and game management, particularly given the financial and participation advantages of hosting finals in regional centres.

9. Canterbury Bulldogs (26 points, -62)

Predicted finish: 9th
Top eight chance: 28.5%
Remaining games: Dragons (A), Panthers (A), Broncos (H)

The Bulldogs’ loss to South Sydney has dramatically narrowed their path to September. The current projections indicate they will likely need to win all three remaining games and rely on either the Rabbitohs or Cowboys failing to register another victory.

Away trips to a resurgent Dragons side and a Panthers outfit chasing a top-two finish, followed by a potentially high-pressure home clash against Brisbane, represent a demanding test of the club’s rebuild and its ability to handle end-of-season pressure under the salary cap and roster rules.

Mathematical chances only: Manly, Melbourne, Canberra and Parramatta

10. Manly Sea Eagles (24 points, +46)

Predicted finish: 10th
Top eight chance: 4.9%
Remaining games: Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)

Manly’s last victory came back in Round 17, and they have since slid out of serious finals contention. Being held scoreless at Brookvale Oval for the first time in 33 years was a symbolic setback as much as a numerical one, amplifying scrutiny on the club’s attacking structures.

Despite a run home that includes two opponents who may rest players if their positions are secured, Manly’s finals probability sits at just 4.9 per cent. However, there are developmental positives from their coach’s partial debut campaign that can inform off-season planning and recruitment strategy.

11. Melbourne Storm (24 points, -4)

Predicted finish: 11th
Top eight chance: 4.9%
Remaining games: Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)

Seeing Melbourne effectively out of the finals race is a notable disruption to the NRL’s recent competitive landscape. Even if a mathematical path exists, it would likely require winning all remaining games against three opponents with substantial motivation of their own.

Injuries have significantly depleted the Storm’s playing stocks, and the club now appears focused on building combinations for next season, with emerging halfback Hayden Watson among those given opportunities to impress under one of the league’s most stable coaching regimes.

12. Canberra Raiders (24 points, -61)

Predicted finish: 12th
Top eight chance: 1.3%
Remaining games: Broncos (H), BYE, Cowboys (A)

The Raiders’ loss to Newcastle in Round 23 effectively ended their finals aspirations, but the subsequent gritty win over the Sharks showed there is still resilience and upside in the squad. With a bye and fixtures against Brisbane and North Queensland, Canberra could conceivably finish on 30 points and as high as ninth.

That outcome would still fall short of the send-off the club hoped to provide for departing veteran Josh Papali’i, but the experience banked by their young halves this season should strengthen internal depth ahead of 2027.

13. Parramatta Eels (22 points, -181)

Predicted finish: 13th
Top eight chance: 0%
Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (A)

Parramatta’s late-season improvement mirrors last year’s pattern: competitive showings against Penrith and South Sydney, a win over the Tigers and a high-scoring victory against the Cowboys. The underlying issue is timing – their surge has again come too late to impact the top-eight race.

The emergence of Jordan Samrani, Luca Moretti and Saxon Pryke offers concrete roster building blocks for coach Jason Ryles. Strong performances in the final three rounds could still influence future selection calls, contract decisions and the club’s strategic approach to the player market.

Survival battle: Tigers, Titans, Broncos and Dragons

14. Wests Tigers (20 points, -213)

Predicted finish: 15th
Top eight chance: 1.5%
Remaining games: Roosters (A), Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)

Wests Tigers’ season encapsulates how quickly fortunes can reverse in the NRL. They sat third after Round 8 with “Benji-ball” in full effect, but off-field incidents and internal disruptions have contributed to a slide that leaves them still mathematically able to finish last.

For the Tigers to collect the wooden spoon, they would need to lose all three remaining matches, with the Dragons winning all of theirs and both the Titans and Broncos also securing enough points to overtake them. That scenario is rated at just 2.4 per cent, and it remains more likely they avoid last place despite an extremely difficult run of away games against the Roosters, Cowboys and Panthers.

15. Gold Coast Titans (18 points, -154)

Predicted finish: 14th
Top eight chance: 2.4%
Remaining games: Sharks (H), Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)

The Titans squandered a major opportunity against Newcastle, conceding 18 points in as many minutes before rallying late in a 10-point defeat. That result followed comfortable losses to both the Cowboys and Warriors, reinforcing concerns about their defensive consistency.

Their remaining schedule is arguably the toughest of the three wooden spoon candidates, with all three opponents pushing to improve their ladder positions in the finals race. There is a realistic chance the Titans fail to win again this season. If they suffer heavy defeats while the Dragons pick up at least two victories, Gold Coast could be overtaken on differential. Although they are rated a 2.4 per cent chance of winning the spoon – slightly higher than the Tigers’ 1.5 per cent – current simulations still project them to finish ahead of Wests.

16. Brisbane Broncos (18 points, -198)

Predicted finish: 16th
Top eight chance: 6.4%
Remaining games: Raiders (A), Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

That the Broncos are even in wooden spoon contention marks a dramatic downturn for a club of their scale, with implications for coaching stability, recruitment and commercial performance at one of the NRL’s most prominent brands.

A 40-6 loss to the Warriors prompted a fierce post-match response from coach Michael Maguire, who publicly challenged his players on effort and standards. The defeat itself was less alarming than the manner of it, given how strong the Warriors have been, but it has left Brisbane facing a demanding run home against Canberra, Melbourne and Canterbury – all of whom are currently in better form.

One more win should be enough for the Broncos to avoid bottom place, but their wooden spoon probability has already climbed from 0.5 per cent a month ago to 6.4 per cent. In a competition governed by equalisation measures such as the salary cap and draft-equivalent junior pathways, a last-place finish would be a significant blow to Brisbane’s long-term planning.

17. St George Illawarra Dragons (14 points, -263)

Predicted finish: 17th
Wooden spoon chance: 89.8%
Top eight chance: 0%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)

The Dragons have taken back-to-back wins, including a late surge to edge the Tigers in Round 24, to revive faint hopes of avoiding the wooden spoon. They remain overwhelming favourites to finish last, with an 89.8 per cent wooden spoon probability, but their recent form has at least altered the tone around the club.

The equation is straightforward: if either the Broncos or Titans win one more game, St George Illawarra will almost certainly need to win all three of their remaining matches to climb off the bottom, given their significantly inferior points differential. If Brisbane and Gold Coast both lose out, two victories could be enough to leapfrog one of them.

Dean Young’s side arguably has the softest run home of the three main spoon contenders, facing the Bulldogs, Sea Eagles and Eels. For a team that started the year poorly, the chance to finish with momentum carries weight not only in avoiding last place but also in shaping off-season decisions and restoring confidence among members and commercial partners.

Run home at a glance: who faces what?

Based on the remaining schedules, the run home for key clubs can be summarised as follows:

• Minor premiership contenders: Roosters, Panthers and Warriors all face at least two opponents still fighting for finals seedings, ensuring the race for first remains live until the final fortnight.
• Top-eight bubble: Cowboys and Bulldogs play multiple matches against teams either in the title race or in the spoon battle, making their fixtures high leverage for both ends of the ladder.
• Wooden spoon battle: Titans, Broncos and Dragons are all drawn against clubs with something tangible to play for, reducing the likelihood of “dead rubbers” and increasing pressure on roster depth and discipline.

Across the competition, these intertwined storylines demonstrate how the NRL’s centralised draw, salary cap and finals structure are designed to create late-season jeopardy. Every result over the coming rounds will ripple across the ladder, influencing not only who lifts the minor premiership, but also who must confront the reality of a wooden spoon and the rebuild that typically follows.

For readers seeking a deeper understanding of how ladder position determines finals qualification, home-ground allocation and match scheduling, the full competition and finals format is outlined in the NRL’s rules and regulations documentation.