WASHINGTON – The United States and Iran exchanged messages on May 30 and May 31 seeking amendments to a draft agreement intended to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though officials have not confirmed if the talks are making substantial progress.
The diplomatic effort occurs as regional volatility increases, marked by an expanded Israeli ground assault in Lebanon and a ballistic missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base.
The stalemate over the draft agreement has contributed to market instability, with Brent crude oil rising to over $93 a barrel and the U.S. dollar strengthening, underscoring the strait’s role as a critical “choke point” for global energy supplies.
Terms of the Draft Agreement
President Donald Trump stated via Truth Social that his proposed deal explicitly requires “that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon.” The administration has framed that demand as a return to core nonproliferation principles that guided earlier negotiations with Tehran.
Following a White House Situation Room meeting on May 29, Trump reiterated demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program and restore the Strait of Hormuz to its status as a free, international waterway. U.S. officials have privately pointed to the longstanding protections for navigation under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as a benchmark for any final arrangement, even though Washington has not ratified the treaty.
Conversely, Iranian state television reported on May 31 that a new draft agreement would grant the Islamic Republic “exclusive authority to determine the nature of transiting vessels” in the strait, a position that would sharply curtail current commercial and military access and test existing maritime norms.
Additional points of contention and proposed terms include:
- Frozen Funds: The draft suggests the U.S. commit to providing Iran access to $12 billion in frozen funds within 60 days, sent directly to Iranian banks without restrictions, a move that would require coordination with U.S. and allied sanctions authorities.
- Nuclear Commitments: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that an Iranian commitment to refrain from seeking a nuclear weapon has been a topic of discussion, but U.S. officials have not detailed how such assurances would be verified or enforced.
- Maritime Control: While Trump previously suggested a joint venture to manage traffic, he stated this week that no single country would control the strait, though the U.S. would “watch over” it, potentially through an expanded multinational naval presence.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the Tasnim news agency that while message exchanges are ongoing, it is not yet possible to judge the results. “Everything being said now is speculation and should not be given importance,” Araghchi said, cautioning domestic audiences and signaling that Tehran does not yet view the text as politically settled.
Israeli Offensive in Lebanon
As diplomacy continued between Washington and Tehran, Israel launched its broadest incursion into Lebanon in 25 years, widening the battlefield even as U.S. officials insist the Hormuz talks are meant to contain regional escalation.
The Israeli military reported that Hezbollah fired more than 300 projectiles at soldiers in Lebanon and northern Israel over the May 30-31 weekend.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the military has established a “permanent presence” in the region, noting that troops have planted their flag on the historic Beaufort Castle near Nabatieh, a symbolic assertion of control in southern Lebanon.
The broader conflict has resulted in significant casualties:
- Lebanese Casualties: At least 3,370 people have been killed since March, according to the Lebanese health ministry, following airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon.
- Diplomatic Intervention: Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to propose a ceasefire, in what U.S. officials describe as an effort to keep the Lebanon front from derailing the Hormuz negotiations.
- U.S. Proposal: The proposed first step requires Hezbollah to cease all attacks on Israel, while Israel would refrain from further escalation in Beirut, a sequencing that places the initial onus on the Iran-backed group.
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the military advance, stating on X that “nothing justifies the major escalation currently underway in southern Lebanon,” and called for rapid coordination among European and regional partners.
Military Strikes and Maritime Enforcement
In a separate escalation, an Iranian ballistic missile struck a Kuwaiti air base in recent days, highlighting the risks to U.S. and allied forces even as ceasefire terms are under discussion.
According to a person with direct knowledge of the attack, the missile was intercepted, but falling debris caused minor injuries to approximately five people, including active-duty personnel and contractors.
The strike also caused significant equipment damage:
- MQ-9 Reaper Drones: One drone was destroyed and another was seriously damaged.
- Financial Loss: Each Reaper drone is valued at approximately $30 million.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Navy continued its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, part of a broader campaign officials say is aimed at enforcing existing sanctions and protecting commercial shipping. On May 30, a U.S. aircraft disabled a Gambia-flagged vessel bound for an Iranian port by firing a Hellfire missile into the engine room.
U.S. Central Command stated the action was taken after the crew ignored more than 20 warnings, and Pentagon officials say the incident will be reviewed against internal rules of engagement and applicable law-of-the-sea standards.
Political and Economic Pressures
The current negotiations follow a history of nuclear volatility. Under a 2015 agreement, Iran capped uranium enrichment and shipped its stockpile out of the country in exchange for sanctions relief, in line with nonproliferation obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
After the U.S. rescinded that deal during Trump’s first term, Iran increased uranium enrichment levels, prompting successive rounds of sanctions and raising concerns among European and regional governments that Tehran could shorten the time needed to produce fissile material for a weapon.
Former national security adviser John Bolton argued that the current push for a deal is driven by domestic U.S. economic concerns rather than long-term security.
“This is a deal about gasoline prices at the pump in the United States,” Bolton said on Bloomberg This Weekend. “Trump worries, obviously, about the price levels people are paying. He’s worried about the effect on inflation. He’s worried about the effect on the elections in November. But this is not a deal that really ends the war in a satisfactory way for the United States.”
Bolton warned that maintaining the current Iranian government in power would allow the regime to rebuild its nuclear and military capabilities, arguing that any agreement that does not address the structure of the Iranian state will be temporary.
For the White House, however, aides say the immediate test is whether an arrangement on Hormuz can lower the risk of direct clashes, stabilize energy markets and create space for broader talks on Iran’s nuclear activities and regional role.
The White House has not responded to requests for comment regarding the reported draft agreement.