President Donald Trump said the United States is considering “winding down” its military operation against Iran even as Iran and Israel traded attacks on Saturday and Iranian media reported an assault on the country’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The remarks came in the fourth week of a conflict that has shaken global energy markets and drawn in US allies, while leaving the Strait of Hormuz-through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil flows-effectively closed to most traffic.
The White House said it would waive sanctions on Iranian oil for 30 days to permit the sale of 140 million barrels currently on tankers, part of an effort to boost supply and cool prices that have surged by 50% since hostilities began on February 28. European natural gas prices jumped 35% this week after damage to regional energy infrastructure, and the European Union urged members to adjust storage targets and begin refilling gradually to curb demand.
“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran,” Trump said on Truth Social. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it – The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
Conflicting signals from Washington as deployments continue
Trump and senior officials have offered mixed messages about US aims throughout the campaign, leaving traditional allies uncertain how to respond. Within 24 hours, the president suggested the war could wind down because the Iranian threat was being eliminated, while US Marines and heavy landing craft were reported headed to the region on a mission whose objectives were not immediately clear.
The public comments have not been matched by a detailed articulation of war aims from the administration or from Congress, which has yet to vote on a specific authorization for the current operation. That lack of formal guidance has complicated planning in allied capitals and in key energy-consuming economies.
At the same time, the president accused NATO allies-who he said were not consulted about the war-of “cowardice” over their reluctance to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Several close US partners in Europe, along with Japan and Canada, pledged to join “appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage, but Germany and France signaled such moves must follow a cessation of hostilities.
Hormuz closed, insurers on alert, and limited bypass options
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to most shipping, amplifying pressure on oil and liquefied natural gas flows. The narrow waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is the only sea passage from Gulf export terminals to the open ocean and is widely regarded as one of the world’s most strategically sensitive chokepoints.[2] Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, told Japan’s Kyodo news agency that Iran would allow Japan-related vessels to transit the waterway; Japan typically receives about 90% of its oil shipments via the strait.
While regional pipelines-such as Saudi Arabia’s east-west Petroline to the Red Sea and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah link-can bypass Hormuz, their spare capacity cannot fully substitute for the disrupted seaborne volumes. Maritime insurers have historically moved quickly to raise war-risk premiums in the Gulf during crises, elevating costs even for ships that can sail.
The closure is also testing long-discussed but only partially implemented contingency plans by major importers to diversify supply routes, tap strategic reserves, and coordinate releases through the International Energy Agency, underscoring how governance of critical sea lanes and energy security are intertwined.
Strikes across Iran and Lebanon, sirens in Israel
Iranian media said US-Israeli forces attacked the Shahid Ahmadi-Roshan Natanz complex on Saturday morning, though Israel said it was unaware of such a strike. Technical experts reported no radioactive leaks and no risk to nearby residents. Israel said Saturday’s attacks inside Iran included targets in Tehran, Karaj, and the central city of Isfahan. A local governor in Ramsar said three members of a family were killed when a residential building was struck, according to Iranian media.
Israel expanded operations in Lebanon, striking Beirut after issuing evacuation warnings for seven neighborhoods in the capital’s southern suburbs. The Israel Defense Forces said four Hezbollah militants were killed in southern Lebanon-one during a “ground engagement” and three by tank fire. More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and more than one million displaced during Israel’s attacks, according to local authorities.
Missile sirens sounded across Israel from early morning, and the military said search-and-rescue teams were dispatched to impact sites in central Israel. There were no immediate reports of casualties. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the US-British base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, but both missed.
Natanz and the nuclear dossier
Natanz sits at the center of Iran’s enrichment program and is monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) under Iran’s safeguards obligations as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The site has been targeted before, including by the Stuxnet cyber operation disclosed in 2010 and subsequent acts of sabotage widely attributed to foreign intelligence services.
The 2015 nuclear agreement-known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)-placed verifiable limits on enrichment levels, centrifuge numbers, and stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief. The United States withdrew from the deal in 2018, after which Iran expanded enrichment beyond JCPOA limits. The status of on-site monitoring and access has been a persistent flashpoint in IAEA-Iran relations, which now faces renewed strain amid the current fighting.
Any confirmed damage to Natanz could further complicate already fraught diplomacy in Vienna and New York, where governments are debating whether the current hostilities breach Iran’s safeguards obligations or existing Security Council resolutions tied to its nuclear file.
Leadership messages as Eid and Nowruz coincide
As Muslims marked Eid al-Fitr on Friday and Iranians celebrated Nowruz, Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei-who has not appeared in public since an initial Israeli attack that killed his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-issued a statement lauding national resolve. He said Iranians had responded with unity and resistance and had “dealt a disorienting blow to the enemy.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Nowruz greetings to Tehran, calling Moscow a loyal friend and reliable partner. Some Iranian sources, however, said Moscow’s tangible support in the crisis had been limited, underscoring the fluidity of external alignments and the gap that can emerge between rhetorical solidarity and operational assistance.
Human toll mounts as displacement spreads
More than 2,000 people have been killed in Iran since the US and Israel attacked on February 28, according to Iranian authorities. In Lebanon, casualties have exceeded 1,000 with more than one million people displaced amid Israeli strikes. Air defense interceptions over Israel sent millions to shelters on Saturday.
Relief agencies warn that damage to critical infrastructure-power, water, and health facilities-could leave civilians in both Iran and Lebanon increasingly dependent on overstretched national authorities and ad hoc international support if the conflict continues.
Rules, precedents, and the risk of miscalculation
The conflict touches multiple legal regimes: freedom of navigation principles under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, IAEA safeguards and non-proliferation norms, and UN Security Council resolutions governing hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon frontier, notably Resolution 1701. Historical precedents-from the 1980s “Tanker War” and US-led convoying under Operation Earnest Will to the 2019-2020 Gulf shipping incidents-show how quickly maritime security crises can broaden and how costly they are to unwind.
For policymakers, the combination of a de facto closure of Hormuz, strikes on nuclear-related infrastructure, and contested legal narratives over self-defense and proportionality has raised the risk that an incident at sea or a misread message between capitals could trigger escalation beyond what any of the parties publicly say they intend.
- Strait of Hormuz: effectively closed to most shipping.
- Energy markets: oil up 50% since February 28; European gas up 35% this week.
- Casualties: more than 2,000 killed in Iran; over 1,000 killed and more than one million displaced in Lebanon.
- Regional strikes: reported hits in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Beirut; air raid sirens across Israel.
- US policy: 30-day waiver to allow sale of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on tankers.
Leading US allies in Europe, as well as Japan and Canada, have pledged to join “appropriate efforts” to restore safe passage through the strait, though Berlin and Paris insist fighting must stop first. Diplomatic efforts at the United Nations and in regional capitals are now centered on sequencing: whether an agreed pause in strikes can be used to reopen Hormuz under international escort, or whether a broader cease-fire is a prerequisite for any sustained maritime security mission.
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to most shipping.