CANBERRA – One Nation has seen a rapid surge in primary vote support, driven largely by a demographic shift toward Generation X voters facing acute economic pressure.
Recent polling indicates the populist party has moved from the political fringes to challenge major parties for dominance, with support peaking among Australians in their 50s and now shaping preference flows that could alter the balance of power in the next federal parliament.
The rise follows a pattern of global populism seen in the United Kingdom and United States, though in Australia, the momentum is being powered by a generation previously viewed as politically disengaged and traditionally courted as a swing bloc by Labor and the Coalition.
One Nation Polling Trajectory
The party’s growth over the last year has been marked by several sharp increases in primary vote support:
- May 2025: 6.4% primary vote
- October 2025: 13% (Essential poll)
- Recent polling: 28% (Essential poll)
- Current estimate: 31% (Redbridge polling), surpassing Labor’s 28%
Redbridge polling shows that support for the party peaks at 43% among Gen Xers, a level that-under Australia’s system of [[3]]preferential voting-could see One Nation wield significant influence over which major party can form government in marginal outer-suburban and regional seats.
Strategists in both major parties say the volatility in the primary vote is beginning to reshape campaign planning, including how messages on tax, housing and energy are framed for voters who no longer see themselves reflected in traditional party brands.
The ‘Sandwich Generation’ Crisis
Economists and strategists identify Generation X-those born between 1965 and 1980-as the “sandwich generation,” squeezed by the simultaneous financial demands of supporting aging parents and adult children.
Terry Rawnsley, an urban economist at KPMG, notes that this cohort is contending with unique economic hurdles not faced by their predecessors, including prolonged high housing costs, insecure work and stagnant real wages through key earning years.
A primary driver is the collapse of home ownership stability for those in their 40s and 50s.
ABS data reveals a significant shift in housing security for the 45-54 age bracket:
- 1998: More than 40% owned their home outright
- 2020: Only 15% owned their home outright
- Renting rates for mid-40s to mid-50s: Increased from 12% to 21% over nearly three decades
Those figures cut directly against the assumptions underpinning retirement and welfare policy settings embedded in the [[2]]Social Security Act 1991, which presumes higher outright home ownership rates in mid-life and older age.
Kos Samaras, Redbridge’s director of strategy and analytics, states that while previous One Nation voters were often older homeowners with “status anxiety,” the new base consists of younger Gen Xers renting in regional areas or outer suburbs, exposed to rising rents and limited savings buffers.
Cost of Living and Wage Divergence
The shift toward populism is closely linked to a decline in consumer confidence, pushed lower by rising interest rates and fuel shocks resulting from the US-Iran war, as well as persistent pressure from utilities, insurance and food prices.
Beth Webster, an economics professor at the University of Melbourne, points to a growing divide in real wage growth between 2014 and 2025:
- Top 10% of earners: Median hourly wages climbed by 25% (approx. 2% per year)
- Bottom 10% of earners: Median hourly wages lifted by 10% (approx. 0.8% per year)
For voters like Wesley Jasper, a former military member now working in a government organization, the motivation is purely financial.
“100% the economy,” Jasper said. “Where does my money go in taxes, and how does that benefit me? And living standards. What can we do for people like me who’ve worked hard my whole life?”
Jasper, who recently moved from Canberra to Ballarat to find affordability, described himself as a “longtime listener, first-time caller” to One Nation, saying he now scrutinises budget announcements and tax changes through the lens of whether they leave him better off month to month rather than over a theoretical lifetime.
Regional Disaffection
In regional hubs, the appeal of One Nation is often tied to a desire for a return to localized production and a reduction in foreign ownership, themes that intersect with long-running debates over trade policy, supermarket concentration and the future of local manufacturing.
Ali Carter, 49, of Echuca, cited the doubling of her weekly grocery shop and the high price of petrol as reasons for her political shift.
“You’re not going to get ahead, which is ridiculous,” Carter said.
She added that she relates to Pauline Hanson because “she doesn’t talk down to you” and remembers her roots as a fish and chip shop owner.
For Carter and others, frustration is not only about prices but about the sense that policy is set in Canberra and capital cities with little regard for smaller towns’ access to services, transport and full-time work.
Brent Larkham, a Tamworth small business owner and musician born in 1970, described a total loss of integrity in the major party system.
“I think people are going, well, they’re just passing the ball between each other, and meanwhile, you go to the petrol pump, or you go to the supermarket, and things are getting tough,” Larkham said.
Larkham, who stood for the electorate of New England against former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce-who has since joined One Nation-now supports nuclear power over renewables, a stance that aligns him with One Nation’s call for a slower energy transition and more attention to short-term power prices.
Government Response
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has acknowledged a global trend of frustration with political systems but has dismissed the populist approach as lacking substance.
“Quite clearly right around the world there’s some frustration with the system and whether the system is working for people and that’s something that we’re very conscious of,” Albanese told journalists.
Senior ministers argue that cost-of-living relief measures, housing supply agreements with the states and industrial relations reforms are designed to address the underlying pressures now turning Gen X voters toward minor parties.
Addressing the rise of Pauline Hanson, Albanese argued that identifying a problem is insufficient.
“What you’ve got to do is identify a solution,” the Prime Minister said. “And when people make their assessment of voting … they’ll determine it based upon who is in a position to actually provide solutions.”
For now, however, strategists across the spectrum concede that neither side of politics has yet articulated a convincing pathway out of the squeeze bearing down on middle-aged households.
Additional reporting by Andrew Messenger.
Solutions to the economic pressures facing Generation X remain in vanishingly short supply, leaving a politically pivotal generation searching for answers well beyond the traditional major-party frame.
