All Blacks count cost of South African tour as Springboks seize 2-1 edge
Amid the satisfaction that they have gone toe-to-toe with South Africa on their own turf, the All Blacks have been left confronting the blunt reality that the world champions still know how to close out a home series.
Assistant coach Neil Barnes, reflecting on yesterday’s
29-24 defeat by the Boks in Soweto
which gave the hosts a 2-1 lead, said his squad had “a chance to be amongst history and we failed and that hurts”.
His assessment underlined the weight attached inside the New Zealand camp both to the Ellis Park-FNB Stadium leg of this tour and to the fourth and final Test to come in Baltimore, USA, on Sunday morning NZT. A series that began framed as a celebration of rugby’s great rivalry now heads to an NFL venue with the Springboks already holding the edge.
The neutral, American stage at the home of the Baltimore Ravens offers the All Blacks a chance to square the ledger at 2-2. What they most craved, though, was a decisive away victory in South Africa – an achievement that would have echoed the feats of the All Blacks “Incomparables” of 30 years ago and burnished this group’s place in the history of a rivalry that stretches back more than a century.
“The room’s pretty gutted,” head coach Dave Rennie said afterwards. “I just walked in there before and there’s a lot of heads down.” The mood reflected not just defeat, but the sense that a rare opportunity in one of Test rugby’s defining fixtures had slipped away.
New Zealand’s prospects of extracting anything more than commercial value from the US leg have receded following injuries to skipper Ardie Savea (dislocated shoulder), midfielder Quinn Tupaea (knee) and flanker Luke Jacobson (elbow). All three are heading home rather than continuing on to Baltimore, stripping the touring party of its captain, a first-choice midfielder and an experienced back-row presence at precisely the point the series becomes an exercise in depth.
Attack firing, series slipping
Savea’s absence was acutely felt in the second half in Soweto as the Boks finished the stronger side and turned sustained scrum pressure – both actual and in the eyes of the officials – into territory, points and control.
Yet for 25 minutes, the All Blacks’ attack looked close to its fluent best. Savea crossed twice in that opening period and across the three Tests Rennie’s men outscored South Africa 13 tries to eight, a statistic that reinforces how much of the contest was played on New Zealand’s terms with ball in hand.
That contrast – scoreboard pain versus attacking productivity – is central to how this tour will be judged. In a World Cup cycle governed by
World Rugby’s laws and competition structures,
the ability to translate territory and line breaks into knockout wins is prized far above aesthetic dominance. The suggestion from one high-profile European analysis that the All Blacks’ “Rennie-ssance” attack would blow away most other Test nations fits what this series has shown; the complication is that their most likely quarter-final opponent next year is the same Springboks side that has just exposed their flaws over three consecutive weeks.
Unfortunately for them, Leroy Carter’s defensive difficulties across the series were among the factors that tipped momentum the other way, alongside set-piece strain and inconsistent goal-kicking. Yet there is a counterweight: New Zealand came from behind to win the first Test 33-16 with a scrum under heavy pressure, and virtually every attacking metric over the three matches painted them as the more productive side with ball in hand.
“It is close if you look at all the stats but, at the end of the day, we’re on the wrong side of the scoreboard so we’re going to have to eat humble pie,” Barnes said, encapsulating a tour in which style has not been enough to outweigh South Africa’s ruthlessness in the key moments that decide Test series and, ultimately, World Cups.
Scrum pressure and search for solutions
Barnes, responsible for the forwards, noted that the Boks enjoyed what he called a “gravy train” of penalties from the set piece across the three Tests. “I’m not saying they were all legit but we have to change the perception of the officials as well so we get a fair rub of the green. We have to be solution-based.”
The underlying issue goes beyond one tour. In an era when scrum decisions can swing both matches and tournament trajectories, how a pack is refereed is as much about technique and discipline as it is about how their behaviour is interpreted in real time. The All Blacks have already voiced concerns on this trip about their treatment at scrum time in the Republic, but as Barnes acknowledged, the onus is now on them to adjust – in body height, engagement timing and post-engagement stability – to shift those perceptions within the framework set by international officials.
Without revisiting every detail of their earlier scrum complaints during the tour, it was striking how few marginal calls seemed to fall New Zealand’s way in Soweto. The pattern reinforces a wider reality at elite level: teams that consistently live on the edge in the set piece invite risk in contests where referees are under pressure to make rapid judgements.
One flashpoint came when referee Nika Amashukeli opted not to award a penalty try to the All Blacks after Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s deliberate knock-down of Savea’s offload to Peter Lakai. The decision looked puzzling at the time, even if Savea crossed shortly afterwards to keep New Zealand in touch.
More contentious still was the Georgian referee’s yellow card for Ruben Love. On the limited television angles made available, Love appeared onside, while Amashukeli’s back was turned to the All Blacks’ No.10 as the ball was played. It is possible he was acting on the advice of French TMO Eric Gauzins, but the pictures suggested a legal position and an infringement that merited more scrutiny – and a clearer explanation – given its impact on a tight Test.
Rennie, speaking in the immediate aftermath, described the call as “hard to take”. In a series already tight on the scoreboard, such moments feed directly into the narrative players and coaches carry into the next World Cup cycle about how they are managed in the biggest matches.
The dynamic also revived one of the staples of old-style South African tours: big-screen influence. Across Ellis Park, DHL Stadium and FNB Stadium, the overwhelming majority of replays shown to the crowd featured potential All Blacks infringements or errors, prompting instant, noisy reaction, with far fewer slow-motion looks at Springboks offences. For visiting sides, that is a reminder that managing optics – not just actions – is now firmly part of Test rugby.
Technology, directors and the TMO era
Concerns about which incidents are replayed, and how often, are not unique to South Africa. In recent seasons, particularly in France, complaints around television coverage and the range of angles made available to TMOs have led to tangible change. A neutral television director is now a formal requirement in the Six Nations, and the same principle was applied to the Champions Cup final in Spain in May after disputes over which clips match officials could access in a semi-final the previous weekend.
That evolution illustrates how the sport’s governance is trying to catch up with the reality that match control is now a three-way conversation between referee, TMO and broadcast truck. For teams like the All Blacks and Springboks, who expect to feature deep into global tournaments, understanding and influencing those processes – within the bounds of the
laws and regulations overseen at international level – has become part of the competitive landscape.
On the playing side, the tone within the All Blacks camp remained measured. Lock Sam Darry and fullback Damian McKenzie fronted media after the loss and both stressed that New Zealand are extremely close to the standard set by the reigning world champions, even if the Test ledger from this tour will not show it.
As the All Blacks head to Baltimore for their next test against the Springboks, 1News’ Andrew Saville explains why the 2-1 series defeat isn’t the disaster it might look like. (Source: Breakfast)
Fine margins and a defining US finale
The raw numbers support the sense that little has separated these sides on the scoreboard:
- First Test: All Blacks won 33-16 (a scoreline even they accept may have flattered them late on)
- Second Test: Springboks won 33-27 in another open contest
- Third Test: Springboks won 29-24, a margin that arguably underplayed their control of the closing stages
For McKenzie, whose attacking instincts are at the heart of Rennie’s blueprint, the task now is extending the periods in which New Zealand’s game clicks. “Not far off at all… if we can stack those moments for longer periods in the game that will go a long way.
“We’re making enough opportunities and there’s still one more Test to go in Baltimore.
“There’s still a lot to play for.”
From a wider vantage point, Baltimore is more than a dead rubber. It is a chance for the All Blacks to prove that their attacking resurgence can withstand the loss of their captain and senior forwards, that their discipline can bend the penalty count back their way, and that they can beat the world champions on neutral soil – a scenario that could easily mirror a World Cup quarter-final or semi-final.
Barnes believes the most significant long-term gain of the tour will be in the depth and competition within the pack. The coming week will test that belief. With Savea and Jacobson gone, Wallace Sititi or Peter Lakai are strong options to start at No.8, while Ethan Blackadder is likely to shoulder more responsibility at openside flanker.
Beyond the back row, Josh Jacomb, Sione Lauaki, Saula Ma’u, Cortez Ratima, Bradley Slater and Ofa Tu’ungafasi are also returning to New Zealand rather than travelling on to the United States, sharpening selection calls and travel logistics for the staff as they attempt to reset both mentally and structurally in a new country.
All Blacks squad for fourth Test
Series context: South Africa lead the four-Test programme 2-1 heading into Baltimore. With no trophy on the line beyond the series itself, the fixture sits in the overlap between high-performance benchmarking and commercial expansion into a key market for international rugby. For players on the fringes of first choice, it doubles as an audition for future selection when this rivalry inevitably resumes on World Cup and Rugby Championship stages.
Forwards: Asafo Aumua, Codie Taylor, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Ethan De Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Pasilio Tosi, George Bower, Xavier Numia, Jamie Hannah, Sam Darry, Josh Lord, Patrick Tuipulotu, Fabian Holland, Tupou Vaa’i, Simon Parker, Wallace Sititi, Peter Lakai, Ethan Blackadder, Semisi Ta’eiloa.
Backs: Cam Roigard, Kyle Preston, Noah Hotham, Beauden Barrett, Ruben Love, Richie Mo’unga, Jordie Barrett, Anton Lienert-Brown, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Fehi Fineanganofo, Leroy Carter, Emoni Narawa, Rieko Ioane, Josh Moorby, Will Jordan, Damian McKenzie.
For a fixture that will not alter rankings or a trophy engraving, Baltimore still carries weight. It is another chapter in a rivalry that has shaped the direction of Test rugby for generations, and a live examination of whether this All Blacks side can translate promise into the kind of statement win that will matter when knockout rugby returns to the calendar.
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