GENEVA – Meteorologists are warning of a rapid intensification of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, signaling a period of heightened climatic instability that could trigger extreme weather patterns across the globe.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed Friday that the phenomenon has already developed and is expected to strengthen quickly. The shift comes as international climate monitors track a surge in sea surface temperatures that threatens to disrupt agricultural cycles, energy production, and humanitarian stability in multiple hemispheres.
The emergence of a strong El Niño event-and the possibility of it evolving into a “super” variant-intersects with a broader trend of anthropogenic global warming. This synergy creates a compounding effect where natural cycles are amplified by a baseline of higher planetary temperatures, increasing the volatility of precipitation and heat.
“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event, as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially confirmed the arrival of the event, defined by prolonged warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. While the current temperature rise is just above the 0.5°C (0.9°F) threshold for a weak El Niño, the trajectory suggests a much more severe outcome.
Data indicates a rapid development into a strong event between July and September 2026. Forecasters are specifically monitoring the probability of a “super” El Niño, which occurs when sea surface temperatures rise 2°C (3.6°F) or more above historical averages. According to NOAA, there is a 63% chance of this threshold being met between November 2026 and January 2027.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned in a video statement in June.
The mechanism driving the event is a collapse in the strength of Pacific trade winds. Normally, these winds push warm surface waters toward Asia, allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to upwell along the coast of the Americas. When these winds weaken, warm water flows back toward the West Coast of the Americas, shifting the Pacific jet stream southward.
This atmospheric shift alters the “conveyor belt” of storms, typically resulting in a cooler, wetter winter for the southern United States and the Gulf Coast, while the northern half of North America experiences uncharacteristic warmth.
The global implications extend far beyond North American weather, and they are already shaping decisions in capitals and boardrooms:
- Asia and Oceania: India and Southeast Asia face a high probability of suppressed summer monsoons, threatening crop yields and food security. Governments across the region are being urged by agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization to ready contingency plans for staple grains, irrigation, and emergency imports.
- The Caribbean: Increased risk of severe drought and water scarcity is forcing utilities and finance ministries to revisit rationing protocols, desalination projects, and debt-funded infrastructure designed for a more stable climate.
- The Atlantic: A tendency to suppress hurricane activity in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic may slightly reduce storm frequency, but officials caution that even a quieter season can still produce high-impact landfalls and must not soften coastal preparedness.
- The Pacific: An amplification of tropical storm activity threatening Hawaii and the Southwest U.S. is prompting early reviews of evacuation plans, wildfire risk, and insurance exposure in jurisdictions already stretched by back-to-back climate disasters.
The economic stakes are historically staggering. A 2023 study published in the journal Science highlighted that the 1982-83 El Niño resulted in $4.1 trillion in global income losses, while the 1997-98 event caused a loss of $5.7 trillion. These losses are typically driven by agricultural collapse, infrastructure damage from flooding, and energy shortages in countries reliant on hydroelectric power. Finance ministries and central banks now routinely factor El Niño scenarios into inflation forecasts, food-price controls, and resilience spending.
If a super El Niño materializes, it would be the first since the 2015-2016 event, which stands as one of the strongest on record and helped trigger record global temperatures, coral bleaching on an unprecedented scale, and major disruptions to fisheries.
The predictive capacity of historical data is currently being challenged by the accelerated pace of climate change. Because the global ocean is significantly warmer now than it was during the super events of 1982 or 1997, the outcomes are less certain. For national disaster agencies and development banks, that uncertainty complicates the calibration of early warning systems, emergency stockpiles, and climate-resilient infrastructure projects that often take years to bring online.
NOAA indicated in early May that 2026 is already very likely to be among the five hottest years on record. The added thermal energy from a strong El Niño could push 2026 or 2027 to become the hottest year in recorded history, surpassing the 2024 peak. Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, governments have pledged to regularly update national climate plans, and several negotiators say they expect this El Niño cycle to sharpen pressure for more ambitious adaptation finance at upcoming global climate summits.
Despite the projections, scientists emphasize that atmospheric complexity remains a factor. Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA, noted that “stronger El Nĩo events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.” She added that enough uncertainty remains that a weaker outcome would not be a surprise. That nuance is central for policymakers balancing the cost of acting early against the risk of being caught unprepared.
The WMO and NOAA continue to monitor equatorial Pacific buoyancy and wind shear to determine if the event will peak as a strong or super El Niño. Both agencies are feeding real-time data into national meteorological services and regional climate centers, which in turn inform crop-planting calendars, disaster declarations, and long-term adaptation strategies. A detailed El Niño outlook is also expected to feature prominently in the next assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, where governments negotiate the scientific baseline that underpins future climate policy.