LOS ANGELES – Super Bowl weekend box office in North America is shaping up to be a familiar test of endurance rather than breakout momentum, with 20th Century Studios’ Sam Raimi-directed Send Help projected to remain the market leader in its second frame.
The film is eyeing an estimated $10 million for the weekend at 3,475 locations, after a $3 million second Friday (February 6, 2026). On that pace, the title would post an estimated 48% drop weekend-over-week, bringing its 10-day North American total to approximately $35.8 million by Sunday (February 8, 2026).
The early estimates outline a weekend where holdover performance and targeted audience plays (including premium-format event screenings) are doing much of the heavy lifting in a historically challenging corridor for theatrical attendance, as Hollywood again tests whether moviegoing can withstand the gravitational pull of the Super Bowl.
Early weekend estimates: market leaders and openings
Angel Studios is positioned for second place with the Kevin James romantic comedy Solo Mio, projected to open to an estimated $7.6 million at 3,052 theaters. The release is tracking $3.1 million on Saturday (February 7, 2026), including $744,000 in previews from Friday (February 6, 2026). For mid-budget faith-adjacent and family-skewing titles, that level of Super Bowl frame engagement will be watched closely by exhibitors looking for counter-programming models they can repeat.
‘Solo Mio’
Angel Studios
Bleecker Street’s K-pop concert title Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience is projected at roughly $5 million for the weekend from 1,724 sites. The release is tracking $3.2 million on Saturday (February 7, 2026), and its run includes $900,000 from 351 IMAX previews on Wednesday (February 4, 2026). The title also carries a 100% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, according to the estimate, underscoring how eventized music films can convert highly engaged fanbases into premium-format revenue even when the broader market is subdued.
Vertical’s Luc Besson-directed Dracula is tracking a $4.8 million opening weekend, with $2.3 million on Saturday (February 7, 2026). The estimate indicates the launch would be Vertical’s best opening to date, ahead of We Bury the Dead‘s $2.5 million. Rotten Tomatoes scores cited alongside the projection show audience reception higher than critics, at 75% to 57% Rotten, suggesting the distributor may lean on word-of-mouth and genre loyalty as it negotiates screen holds with circuits in the coming weeks.
Holdovers: sharp second-weekend drops and steadier declines
Markiplier’s Iron Lung is projected to reach approximately $4.65 million in its second weekend at 2,930 theaters. The estimate pegs the film’s second Friday (February 6, 2026) at around $1.5 million and projects a 74% weekend-to-weekend decline, with a running domestic total of about $29.45 million by Sunday (February 8, 2026). That steeper fall, following an outsized opening powered by the creator’s online fanbase, will be parsed by studios and guilds as they assess how sustainable influencer-driven theatrical releases are beyond initial fan turnout.
Amazon MGM Studios’ Melania is projected at $3.5 million in its second weekend, down 51%, for a 10-day total of $14.5 million by Sunday (February 8, 2026). The documentary’s performance comes amid unusual scrutiny of audience-score integrity on ratings platforms and questions about how politically charged non-fiction should be marketed in a polarized environment, particularly when backed by a major tech and streaming conglomerate.
These patterns matter operationally because second-weekend trajectory influences how long a title holds premium showtimes and wide playdates. For exhibitors, the mix of steadier holds (around the low-50% range) versus steep drops (north of 70%) can quickly reshape screen allocations heading into the next cycle of releases. For studios and their financiers, those curves in turn affect how quickly they can recoup production and marketing outlays under the revenue-sharing terms set out in the standard theatrical exhibition agreements that operate within the framework of U.S. antitrust and consent-decree oversight of studio-theater relations, such as the regime formerly structured by the Paramount consent decrees.
Franchise and distributor performance: signals inside the theater counts
Lionsgate’s The Strangers – Chapter 3 is projected to open to about $3.7 million at 2,565 locations, including an estimated $1.7 million on Saturday (February 7, 2026). For context within the series’ recent theatrical performance: Strangers 2 opened to $5.8 million in September 2025, while The Strangers – Chapter 1 delivered the strongest start of the three at $11.8 million in May 2024. The projection notes that no Rotten Tomatoes audience score was available at the time of the estimate, while the critics score stood at 19%, an early signal that the franchise’s brand power with horror regulars may now be doing more work than critical endorsement.
Even when overall market volume is soft, theater-count strategies and niche programming can still produce viable weekend results. Concert and event titles, in particular, can add meaningful revenue through higher concentration in premium formats and tightly defined fan turnout-an approach illustrated here by the IMAX preview component baked into the Stray Kids estimate. For corporate schedulers at the major chains, these specialty plays are increasingly treated as part of a diversified content portfolio rather than one-off experiments, especially as they weigh leases, staffing and capital plans in an environment where streaming and sports continue to erode the predictable baseline for traditional theatrical runs.
At the same time, studios’ release calendars and marketing bets remain shaped by broader policy and labor dynamics: the aftershocks from the 2023 dual Hollywood strikes, ongoing talks over AI and residuals, and regulatory scrutiny of studio consolidation all influence how aggressively companies commit to wide releases in corridors like Super Bowl weekend.
Super Bowl weekend comparisons: a recent benchmark
The most direct recent comparison cited for the period is Super Bowl weekend 2025 (February 7-9, 2025), led by the second weekend of DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man with $13.8 million. Total grosses across all titles for that weekend were reported at $54.2 million, described as the second worst weekend of 2025, underscoring how consistently depressed this frame has been as live sports and at-home viewing concentrate national attention elsewhere.
Early 2026 estimates suggest this year’s Super Bowl corridor will again land in a similar range, with a single-digit million leader and a long tail of mid-range horror, documentary and event titles rather than a four-quadrant tentpole. For city officials, tax authorities and film offices that track admissions and local spending, these patterns reinforce why cinema is now modeled more as a volatile, event-driven business than a weekly utility-prompting some jurisdictions to refine their incentive programs, support for exhibition infrastructure and tourism tie-ins around targeted release windows rather than relying on a uniform year-round baseline.
As of Saturday, February 7, 2026, the figures above reflect projected weekend performances and running totals through Sunday, February 8, 2026, when final North American weekend grosses are expected to be reported under the voluntary industry reporting norms coordinated by studios, exhibitors and data providers, and increasingly cross-checked against third-party auditing and ratings frameworks such as those used by U.S. advertising and endorsements guidelines in adjacent marketing channels.
